I know many are salivating over the carnage that could will be the constituency of Dun Laoghaire in the forthcoming election. The two FF ministers who won’t budge, the party leader and ambitious senator (Labour) the Socialist Worker/People Before Profit Alliance/United Left Alliance posterboy, the Green former junior minister.  And I haven’t even mentioned the FG candidates!

But for me this campaign my thoughts return to my alma mater in Dublin North West. I have referred to the potential fun and games here before. Fine Gael candidates Bill Tormey and Gerry Breen are no doubt busy getting their campaigns underway but things are not looking great at the moment for either of them to get a seat.

News reached me recently of a private Fine Gael poll of over 300 voters carried out last month which spells disaster for the warring duo.

FG – 6.9%
FF -11.7%
Lab – 46%
SF – 14.9%
OTH -20.5%

6.9% between the two candidates won’t get either of them elected.  Interested to hear what the word locally a few weeks on into the campaign might be?  I note (thanks to Gerry Breen himself!) that Paddy Power opened a book on the constituency.

Roisin Shorthall (Lab) 1/50
Dessie Ellis (SF) 1/9
John Lyons (Lab) 4/6
Pat Carey (FF) 5/6
Bill Tormey (FG) 4/1
Gerry Breen (FG) 4/1
Andrew Keegan (PBP) 18/1
John Dunne (WP) 40/1
Rachel Pearson (Green) 50/1

I’ve not made any predictions yet, but anyone feel that Lab 2, SF1 is looking a distinct possibility? Lab 1 SF1 FF1 if Labour don’t manage their vote well.  Has Noel Ahern’s retirement made Carey truely safe?